On the eve of Election Day, national polls point to a strong Democratic year. The House looks especially vulnerable for Republicans; control of the Senate may hinge on a handful of close races in states Trump carried in 2024.
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Texas remains a Republican-leaning state, but its Senate race is close enough to command national attention. Democrat James Talarico has a small polling edge; Republican Ken Paxton has the state’s partisan lean, President Trump’s support and a long record of winning statewide office. The result may turn on whether Talarico can expand the electorate—and whether Paxton’s vulnerabilities push some Republicans to stay home or split their tickets.
Abdul El-Sayed enters Election Day with a narrow lead in most polling averages and a strong showing in one late survey. Mike Rogers brings a long résumé in Michigan and Washington, plus a chance to unite voters uneasy with El-Sayed’s progressive agenda and comments on Israel. A last-minute endorsement from El-Sayed’s former primary rival has added drama, but may not be enough to change the race.
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